Onwards & upwards…
1) I spent the first half of the weekend drunkenly slurring at everyone who would listen that Mich St was a total fluke. Midway through Saturday night, I smoothly amended my analysis and began self assuredly reporting that UConn’s lack of consistent outside shooting forced them to acquiesce to Mich St’s playstyle. In my opinion, both of these pieces of analysis were wrong.
2) If I were a betting man, I’d take UNC -6.5. I mean wow. I’m sure the line will move some this week, but wow. That’s basically betting that the game will end up decided by one or two points, since all college games end up -2 or -10 thanks to late game free throws. If you honestly believe Mich St can win, take them. If you’re just trying to take the pointspread, do yourself a favor and take UNC.
3) Oh, and take the under while you’re at it. I don’t think this game being played in the high 70’s/low 80’s. The Uconn game was fluky in that it was much higher scoring than “Sparty” is used to, and knowing that they’re playing UNC, Izzo will have them trying to use 35 seconds of clock and six different half court sets every possession.
4) I will not actually be gambling on any of these lines, and may not even watch the game. Andrew will, though.